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Characterisation Method Information

Characterisation Method Name:

Carcinogenic substances air emissions impact on DALYs

Version:

2000

Date Completed:

2000

Principal Method Name:

ECO-indicator: mathematical modelling of EUSES and unit risk analysis

Method Description:

DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Years)

Description of the problem

Providing evidence of a causal link between agent and tumour incidence is a complex task and needs the consideration of all kinds of experimental results and epidemiological studies. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) is one scientific body performing such qualitative risk
assessments. IARC uses a classification system to group substances according to the evidence available on human or animal carcinogenicity.

For all substances classified in IARC groups 1, 2A, 2B and 3 for which sufficient information on physico-chemical characteristics and carcinogenesis is available, the damage to human health resulting from an emission is calculated. For group 1 there is epidemiological evidence that the substances are
carcinogenic to humans. The other groups have proven or expected cancer potency in animals.

Fate analysis

In order to create a consistent fate analysis for different damage categories within the Eco-indicator 99, the fate factors calculated by [HOFSTETTER 1998] are not used, but replaced by new fate factors
calculated with EUSES(the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances). The result of the fate analysis is a fate factor that provides the link between an emission in Europe
(kg/yr) and the steady state concentration in air, drinking water and food resulting from this emission.

For the emission in the form of a mass load (1 kg) the resulting concentration can be allocated to the emission during a certain period of time.

Effect analysis: estimation of cancer incidence

The cancer incidence is estimated using the Unit-Risk concept: The unit risk factor for inhalation is an estimate of the probability that an average individual will develop cancer when exposed to a pollution at an ambient concentration of one microgram per cubic meter for the individual's life (70 years) [UR in cases per µg/m3]
The Unit-Risk concept [WHO 1987] is used for estimation of the dose response relationship. Unit risk factors are mostly derived from IRIS (Integrated risk Information System)(US EPA), WHO Europe and a study for Germany [LAI 1992]. In case more unit risk factors are available the most recent factors are preferred.
In case the unit risk factor for only one exposure pathway is known, the unit risk factors for the other pathways have been extrapolated by calculating an equal intake, using data on inhalation rate, consumption of drinking water and food. This procedure is common for US-EPA and the data are
derived from risk assessment and can be considered worst case, meaning the extrapolated UR factors are probably overestimating the effects. The differences in bio-availability of substances for different uptake routes are not taken into account.

The population density determines the number of people exposed. Since pollutants with long
atmospheric residence times are blown to rural areas, the effect of these substances is mostly on lower population densities. Long range distribution of substances is mostly via air, regardless where the
emission takes place. Therefore the population density is modelled per substance dependent on their atmospheric residence times. In the calculation of substance specific residence time the following
assumptions based on the average wind speed for large scale modelling are used:
• The population density equals the average population density of Western Europe (160 P/km2) if the residence time is one day (assuming full dispersion over Europe in one day).
• The population density equals the average population density of the World if residence time is one year (assuming full global dispersion).
• The maximum population density is set to 300 P/km 2 With the information on population density, unit risk and the fate factors, the cancer incidence,
expressed as the number of cancer cases per kg substance emitted can be determined for the different pathways and emissions. This is named the effect factor.

Damage analysis

Estimation of the Years of Life Lost (YOLL) and Years Lived Disabled per cancer incidence resulting

from the effect factors are estimated from:
1. The type of cancer that is expected.
2. Which share of tumour patients will die.
3. How many potential life years are lost (depending on age).
4. How long is the illness.
5. What is the severity of the disability.

TYPE OF CANCER AND SURVIVAL RATE

It is assumed that the first mentioned site of tumour incidence is the most important one (shares are unknown). Only those sites distinguished in [Murray et al 1996] and registered in cancer statistics are
considered. The category unspecified is modelled by the average over all cancer sites. The consequences for a wrong categorisation of cancer types are limited because of slight differences in results for the different cancer types.
The survival rate and the YOLL are estimated from cancer statistics using the standard life table from Murray. The disability weights and the Years Lived Disabled for the cancer types are provided by work of [MURRAY ET AL 1996].

Literature Reference:

1. [ISO 14040] ISO 14040 Standard, Life Cycle Assessment- Principles and Framework; International Standard organisation 1997 2. [Worldbank 1993] World Bank. 1993 World Development Report: Investing in Health.. Washington: World bank. 3. [Murray 1996] Murray, Christopher; Lopez, Alan; The Global Burden of Disease, WHO, World Bank and Harvard School of Public Health. Boston, 1996. [Hofstetter 1998] Hofstetter, P. (1998): Perspectives in Life Cycle Impact Assessment; A Structured Approach to Combine Models of the Technosphere, Ecosphere and Valuesphere. , Kluwers Academic Publishers, 1998, Info: www.wkap.nl/book.htm/07923-8377-X.

Methodological Range:

Geographical range is Europe Data are based on hierarchist perspective

Notes:

Existing Characterisation Factors of Carcinogenic substances air emissions impact on DALYs

Characterisation Parameter

Category Indicator

Impact Indication Principle

Aspect

Substance

Quantity

Unit

Notes

CFactor

DALYs