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Characterisation Method Information
Characterisation Method Name:
Butadiene impact on severe morbidity
Version:
1999
Date Completed:
1999
Principal Method Name:
EPS: cancer pathway, global warming and oxidant pathways
Method Description:
Model 1, cancer pathway

The characterisation factor is determined by the empirical method.

Category indicator value in system considered

The portion of cancer incidences not causing death (36%) is classified as severe
morbidity. The average length of the morbidity is not known at present, but is assumed to be 5 years. This means that the total indicator value in the environmental system is (5/24)*(0.36/0.64)* 1.64E+05 person-years of severe morbidity, where 1.64E+05 is the indicator value determined in "HCl impact on YOLL".

Contribution to category indicators value from a flow unit

The same contribution as in "Butadiene impact on YOLL" is used i.e. 4.88×E-10 per kg butadiene.

Calculation of pathway specific characterisation factor

(5/24)*(0.36/0.64)* 1.64E+05 *4.88E-10 = 9.38E-06 person-years/kg

Model 2, global warming pathway

The characterisation factor is determined by an equivalency method using CO2 as a reference.

Equivalency factor

The GWP100 was estimated by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to 11 in one of the early reports. (1990). Later this statement was withdrawn by IPCC, with the motivation that the uncertainty was too large. In the EPS context however, omitting it would create a larger error than including it, so the equivalency factor 11 will still be used.

Calculation of pathway specific characterisation factor

The characterisation factor of CO2 for severe morbidity is determined to 3.53E–07 person-years/kg, which means that the characterisation factor of butadiene for severe morbidity is 11*3.53E–07 = 3.88E–06 person-years/kg.

Model 3, oxidant pathway

The characterisation factor is determined by an equivalency method using ethylene as a
reference.

Equivalency factor

The POCP (Photo Oxidant Creation Potential) for butadiene is not listed in Lindfors et.al.(1994), but extrapolating from n-butane, with a peak POCP of 0.554 and 1-butene with 0.799 it is likely that 1,3-butadiene has a POCP around 1.

Calculation of pathway specific characterisation factor

The oxidant pathway specific characterisation factor of ethylene for severe morbidity is determined to 6.76E-07 person-years/kg ethylene. This gives an oxidant pathway specific characterisation factor of butadiene for severe morbidity of 1*6.76E-07 =6.76E-07 person-years/kg.

Calculation of characterisation factor

The resulting characterisation factor from adding the three pathways is 9.38E-06 +
3.88E–06 + 6.76E-07 = 1.33E-05 person-years/kg

Literature Reference:
1. Lindfors, L.G.,Christiansen, K., Hoffman, L., Virtanen, Y., Juntilla, V. Leskinen, A., Hanssen, O-J., Rønning, A., Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G., LCA-Nordic, Technical report No 10, Tema Nord 1995:503, Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen 1994. 2. Houghton, J.T Jenkins, G.J. and Ephraums, J.J., (Ed.) (1990) Climate change – The IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press
Methodological Range:
Including emissions from anywhere at the globe 1990 and considering a residence time of several days for butadiene and its reaction products, the environmental system will also be global. As butadiene causes cancer, there is a reason for using a 20-year system border, but as we use a linear dose-response model, we restrict the system borders to the year 1990. For the global warming pathways the same system borders as for CO2 is relevant, i.e. 100 years.
Notes:

Existing Characterisation Factors of Butadiene impact on severe morbidity
Characterisation Parameter Category Indicator Impact Indication Principle Aspect Substance Quantity Unit Notes
CFactor Severe morbidity EPS/2000
Type = Emission
Direction = Output
Media = Air
Geography = *
Butadiene 1.33E-05 p yr/kg 3 pathways