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Characterisation Method Information
Characterisation Method Name:
CFC-11 impact on YOLL
Version:
1999
Date Completed:
1999
Principal Method Name:
EPS: stratospheric ozone depletion pathway and global warming pathway
Method Description:
YOLL stands for Year of Lost Life.


Model 1, stratospheric ozone depletion pathway

The characterisation factor is determined by the empirical method.

Category indicator value in system considered

The mortality in Holland due to skin cancers is expected to increase to 3 cases per million per year in the white population the year 2040 and then decrease (Slaper, 1993). If the white global population is around 1 billion this means 3000 cases per year. If compensated for population growth it will be slightly more. The global population is expected to grow to around 9-10 billion at the end of 2000. Most of the growth is
however not in the white population, why the average incidence is assumed to be only
slightly higher, 3500 cases per year.
The average reduction of life expectancy was estimated in "Benzene impact on YOLL" to 24 years. Thus, the category indicator value is 3500*24*100 = 8400000 YOLL.

Contribution to category indicators value from a flow unit

According to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) business as usual estimate (including agreed emission reductions) the global emissions of freons in terms of CFC-11 equivalents will be 2.5 E+10 kg for the next 100 years. Therefore the contribution of 1 kg CFC-11 (with respect to Ozone Depletion Potential) is 4E-11 kg -1 .

Calculation of pathway specific characterisation factor

The pathway specific characterisation factor is thus 8400000*4E-11 = 3.36E-04 YOLL/kg CFC-11.

Model 2, global warming pathway

The characterisation factor is determined by an equivalency method using CO2 as a
reference.

Equivalency factor

The GWP-100 for CFC-11 is 4000 (IPCC, 1994).

Calculation of pathway specific characterisation factor

The characterisation factor of CO2 for YOLL was determined to 7.93E–07 YOLL/kg CO2. Thus the global warming pathway specific characterisation factor for CFC-11 is 4000*7.93E–07 = 3.17E–03 YOLL/kg CFC-11.

Calculation of characterisation factor

The resulting characterisation factor from adding the two pathways is 3.36E-04 +1.62E–02
= 1.65E–02 YOLL/kg CFC-11.

Literature Reference:
1. Slaper, H., RIVM, Conferens on Comparative Risk Analysis and Priority Setting, June 7-11 1993, Keystone, Colorado,USA. 2. IPPC, “The 1994 Report of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of IPCC. Summary for policymakers”, WMO and UNEP, 1994
Methodological Range:
CFC-11 has a very long residence time in air. According to IPCC it is 50 years. The effects are global. The greenhouse end point effects are assumed largely to depend on how fast the temperature change is why the next 100 years have been chosen as a system border for CO2 effects. The duration of effects caused by depletion of the ozone layer are much longer, but applying an emission scenario following the Montreal agreement and addendum of Copenhagen and London, most of the effects are likely to have occurred before 100 years. The environmental system borders chosen are therefore global and 100 years.
Notes:

Existing Characterisation Factors of CFC-11 impact on YOLL
Characterisation Parameter Category Indicator Impact Indication Principle Aspect Substance Quantity Unit Notes
CFactor YOLL EPS/2000
Type = Emission
Direction = Output
Media = Air
Geography = *
CFC-11 1.65E-02 p yr/kg 2 pathways