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Characterisation Method Information
Characterisation Method Name:
Ethylene impact on severe morbidity
Version:
1999
Date Completed:
1999
Principal Method Name:
EPS: empirical method modelling on cancer and oxidant pathways; equivalency method modelling on global warming
Method Description:
Model 1, cancer pathway

The characterisation factor is determined by the empirical method.

Category indicator value in system considered

The portion of cancer incidences not being mortal (36%) is classified as severe morbidity.
The average length of the morbidity is not known at present, but is assumed to be 5 years.
This means that the total indicator value in the environmental system is (5/24)*(0.36/0.64)* 4.99E+04 person-years of severe morbidity, where 4.99E+04 is the indicator value determined in "Ethylene impact on YOLL".

Contribution to category indicators value from a flow unit

The same contribution as in "Ethylene impact on YOLL" is used i.e. 1.06E-10 per kg.

Calculation of pathway specific characterisation factor

(5/24)*(0.36/0.64)* 4.99E+04 *1.06E-10 = 6.20E-07 person-years/kg

Model 2, global warming pathway

The characterisation factor is determined by an equivalency method using CO2 as a
reference.

Equivalency factor

The GWP100 was estimated by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)to 11 in one of the early reports. (1990). Later this statement was withdrawn by IPCC, with the motivation that the uncertainty was too large. In the EPS context however, omitting it would create a larger error than including it, so the equivalency factor 11 will still be used.

Calculation of pathway specific characterisation factor

The characterisation factor for CO2 is determined in 3.1.4 to 3.53E07 person- years/kg, which means that the characterisation factor of ethylene for severe morbidity is 11*3.53E07 = 3.88E06 person-years/kg.


Model 3, oxidant pathway

The characterisation factor is determined by the empirical method.

Category indicator value in system considered

The global average ozone concentration was estimated in "NOx impact on YOLL" to 20 ppbv. The elasticity determined by ExternE (1995) including change in hospital admissions 1.095 cases per 100000 persons per year and change in emergency room visits for asthma by 2.63 cases per 100000 persons per year per annual change in ozone concentration in ppbv are used.
Assuming an average duration of hospital visits of one week, and emergency room visits
of one day, we obtain a total value for the indicator of 20*5.28E+09 *(1.095E-05 *7/365+
2.63E-05 *1/365) = 2.98E+04 person-years per year

Contribution to category indicators value from a flow unit

The same contribution is used as in "NH3 impact on YOLL" i.e. 2.27E-11 per kg ethylene.

Calculation of pathway specific characterisation factor

2.98E+04 person-years per year* 2.27E-11 kg -1 = 6.76E-07 person-years/kg ethylene

Literature Reference:
1. Houghton, J.T Jenkins, G.J. and Ephraums, J.J., (Ed.) (1990) Climate change The IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press 2. ExternE, (1995) "Externalities of Energy" European Commission, DG-XII, Vol 2, "Methodology", Brussels-Luxembourg, 1995.
Methodological Range:
Including emissions from anywhere at the globe 1990 and considering a residence time of several days for ethylene and its reaction products, the environmental system will also be global. As ethylene causes cancer, there is a reason for using a 20-year system border, but as we use a linear dose-response model, we restrict the system borders to the year 1990. For the global warming pathways, the same system borders as for CO2 is relevant, i.e. 100 years.
Notes:

Existing Characterisation Factors of Ethylene impact on severe morbidity
Characterisation Parameter Category Indicator Impact Indication Principle Aspect Substance Quantity Unit Notes
CFactor Severe morbidity EPS/2000
Type = Emission
Direction = Output
Media = Air
Geography = *
Ethylene 4.50E-06 p yr/kg 3 pathways